NFL - DRAFTKINGS WEEK 3 RB & WR ANALYSIS
Week 2 is officially in the books, giving us our first real look at how offenses are using their key skill-position players. In this article, we’ll break down the volume, target share, touches, red-zone usage and matchup data throughout the season to identify which wide receivers and running backs could carry that production into Week 2. The goal isn’t simply to chase last week’s box scores, but to identify repeatable usage and favorable situations that can help uncover strong DFS plays before the next slate kicks off.
Top 15 Targeted WR'S through 2 weeks
WR | Team | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | FPTS/G |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 22 | 17 | 277 | 4 | 34.4 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 27 | 19 | 209 | 4 | 32.0 |
Chris Olave | NO | 23 | 18 | 268 | 1 | 25.4 |
CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 17 | 13 | 197 | 3 | 25.3 |
Christian Watson | GB | 19 | 10 | 188 | 3 | 23.4 |
Justin Jefferson | MIN | 15 | 11 | 147 | 2 | 19.9 |
DeVonta Smith | PHI | 19 | 13 | 170 | 1 | 18.0 |
Stefon Diggs | WAS | 15 | 9 | 102 | 3 | 18.6 |
Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 14 | 11 | 136 | 1 | 15.3 |
Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 13 | 9 | 87 | 2 | 14.9 |
Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 18 | 10 | 176 | 0 | 12.8 |
Tee Higgins | CIN | 16 | 8 | 154 | 0 | 11.7 |
Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 13 | 9 | 140 | 0 | 11.5 |
George Pickens | DAL | 14 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 7.9 |
DK Metcalf | PIT | 19 | 8 | 67 | 0 | 7.4 |
The Elite Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: JSN is coming off an absurd first two weeks with 22 targets, 17 receptions, 277 yards and 4 TDs, and now gets Washington. Seattle is a 6-point favorite, but the 40.5 total isn't particularly exciting, so the appeal is primarily his ridiculous individual target concentration rather than game environment. He's currently projected for 21.5 DK points, making him the premier volume/ceiling play.
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has 17 targets, 13 catches, 197 yards and 3 TDs through two games and now gets Baltimore in what is currently the highest-total game on the main slate at 51.5 points. Dallas should have opportunities to throw against a Ravens defense dealing with multiple secondary injuries, while Baltimore's offense creates plenty of potential for a competitive game script. Lamb's 20.3-point projection puts him firmly in the elite WR conversation.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Amon-Ra has been a target monster, seeing 27 targets with 19 receptions, 209 yards and 4 TDs through two games. Detroit gets the Jets in a game carrying a 47.5 total, with the Lions favored by 6.5. His combination of target volume and red-zone involvement gives him one of the strongest floors on the slate, while his 19.5 DK projection reflects the ceiling.
Garrett Wilson: Garrett Wilson is quietly putting together the type of start that makes him very interesting for Week 3. He has seen seven targets in each of the Jets' first two games, turning them into 11 receptions for 136 yards, while Geno Smith has provided much more functional quarterback play than we have seen from the Jets in recent seasons. Wilson enters a matchup with Detroit that carries a 47.5-point game total, with the Lions allowing the second-most yards to opposing offenses through two weeks. Wilson is currently projected for 5.7 receptions, 69 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns, good for roughly 15.5 DraftKings points. The seven-target floor is attractive, but the matchup gives him legitimate ceiling potential if this game turns into the shootout DFS players are hoping for.
Searching For Value
Adonai Mitchell - $4,300: If you're looking for a cheaper way to attack the same Jets-Lions game environment, Adonai Mitchell deserves serious consideration. Mitchell has emerged as the clear No. 2 receiver behind Wilson, following a 3-60 performance on three targets in Week 1 with six catches for 63 yards on a team-high 12 targets in Week 2. That gives him 15 targets through two games, and even more importantly, he's topped 60 receiving yards in both contests. Detroit has already surrendered 658 passing yards and six passing touchdowns through two weeks, creating a very appealing matchup for a receiver who is seeing this much volume. His DraftKings salary remains in the value range, 12-target usage in a 47.5-point game environment is exactly the type of salary-saving opportunity we may need on this slate.
Jalen Coker — $5,500: Coker is probably the best combination of floor and salary relief for me. He's caught eight passes in each of the first two games, which is ridiculous volume for a $5,500 receiver. He's primarily working from the slot, and Cleveland has been particularly vulnerable there against man coverage. The matchup also sets up well because the Browns have played man coverage at the highest rate in the league. If Coker maintains anything close to his current target volume, $5,500 is simply too cheap for the role
Denzel Boston — $4,500: Boston is another guy I'd have in the tournament pool. He's scored a 45+ yard touchdown in each of the first two games, and he's playing in a matchup where Carolina should be able to attack Cleveland's secondary. He's also seeing substantial downfield work, which makes him particularly interesting at $4,500. Obviously, the two long TDs aren't something we should blindly expect to continue, but the combination of playing time, air yards and big-play ability makes him more than just a touchdown dart.
Devaughn Vele — $4,200: Vele is one of my favorite salary-saving options, and a big reason is the way New Orleans has been throwing the football. The Saints have attempted 90 passes through two games, second-most in the NFL, while Tyler Shough has already thrown for 662 yards and four touchdowns. Vele has taken advantage of that volume, seeing 16 targets and catching 12 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown through two weeks. He has also topped 60 receiving yards in both games. Now he gets a Raiders defense at home, and I expect New Orleans to continue leaning on its passing attack. At just $4,200, Vele doesn't need a monster performance to pay off his salary, and his combination of target volume, catch rate and role in a pass-heavy offense gives him a very attractive floor with legitimate touchdown upside.
Top 10 Total Touches for RB's through 2 weeks
RB | Team | Opportunity | Rush Att. | Targets | RZ | Goal-Line |
Kenneth Walker III | KC | 63 | 47 | 16 | 8 | 4 |
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 58 | 45 | 13 | 14 | 7 |
Ashton Jeanty | LV | 57 | 44 | 13 | 10 | 3 |
Jonathan Taylor | IND | 51 | 43 | 8 | 15 | 12 |
Bijan Robinson | ATL | 51 | 37 | 14 | — | — |
Derrick Henry | BAL | 44 | 40 | 4 | 12 | 9 |
D'Andre Swift | CHI | 40 | 34 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
Christian McCaffrey | SF | 32 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 5 |
David Montgomery | HOU | 31 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 27 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
Opportunity refers to total touches this season RZ refers to Red Zone opportunity
The Alphas
One of the biggest challenges on this Week 3 slate is going to be figuring out which of the elite RBs we actually want to pay for. We have an unusually strong group of backs all carrying legitimate alpha workloads, with Gibbs, Walker, Taylor, Bijan, CMC and Henry all bringing the type of volume and touchdown equity that can win a DraftKings slate. The problem is that most of them come with premium salaries, making it nearly impossible to comfortably fit all of these backs into the same lineup without making significant sacrifices at WR and other positions. This is where roster construction becomes especially important this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs — $8,800
Jahmyr Gibbs is the most expensive RB on the slate, but he's also the player I'm most willing to pay up for. Gibbs has already accumulated 58 total touches through two games, including 13 targets, giving him both elite rushing volume and the receiving role that creates massive DraftKings upside. He's now facing the Jets, and current projections have Gibbs around 22 carries, five receptions and nearly 27 DraftKings points. At $8,800, we're obviously paying a premium, but the combination of workload, receiving upside and touchdown equity gives Gibbs multiple paths to a slate-breaking performance. If I'm paying all the way up at RB this week, Gibbs is the first name I'm looking at.
Kenneth Walker III — $7,400
Kenneth Walker is my smash play this week. Jamming him in no matter what, given his combination of volume and price among the elite backs. Walker has handled 63 touches through two weeks, including 47 carries and 16 targets, making him one of the highest-volume backs in the league. He's projected for more than 22 carries and three receptions against Miami. The $7,400 price tag is what really catches my attention. We're getting an alpha workload without having to pay the $8K+ prices attached to Gibbs and CMC. If Walker maintains this workload, he has a very realistic path to 20+ DK points while leaving considerably more salary available for the rest of the lineup.
Jonathan Taylor — $7,600
Jonathan Taylor is the back I want to highlight when discussing touchdown equity. Taylor has already handled 43 carries and eight targets through two games, while his red-zone and goal-line usage has been among the best at the position. He's projected for 18.8 carries, 3.4 receptions, 87.7 rushing yards and 0.7 touchdowns against Houston. At $7,600, Taylor doesn't need to dominate through the passing game to pay off his salary. His path is simple: Indianapolis moves the ball, Taylor gets the high-value touches near the goal line, and he converts them into touchdowns. With that workload already established, he's one of the strongest options on the slate.
Christian McCaffrey — $8,300
Christian McCaffrey is the most intriguing ceiling play of this group because of how valuable his receiving role is. CMC has only 20 rushing attempts through two games, but he's already seen 12 targets, catching 10 of them for 87 yards. That's an enormous receiving workload for an RB priced at $8,300. He's projected for 16 carries and 5.3 receptions against Arizona, along with 20.9 fantasy points. The beauty of CMC is that he doesn't need 25 carries to break a slate. If San Francisco gets him involved heavily in the passing game while also giving him his normal goal-line opportunities, he has one of the highest ceilings at the position.
Derrick Henry — $7,700
Derrick Henry is the alpha I want exposure to from the highest-total game on the main slate, with Baltimore taking on Dallas in a matchup carrying a 51.5-point total. Henry has already accumulated 40 carries through two weeks, along with significant red-zone and goal-line usage, and he's projected for 19.1 carries, 2 receptions, 93.5 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns this week. At $7,700, Henry sits in a very appealing middle ground between the expensive Gibbs/CMC tier and the cheaper Walker/Taylor tier. If Baltimore scores multiple touchdowns in this matchup, Henry's combination of rushing volume and goal-line work gives him an obvious path to a ceiling game. The 51.5-point game environment only adds to the appeal.
The interesting part for me is the pricing: Walker at $7,400 and Taylor at $7,600 give us legitimate alpha workloads without having to spend $8,300-$8,800. That could be extremely important on a slate where there are also several expensive WRs worth paying for.
Searching For Value
Jaylen Warren - $5,700
Warren has quickly emerged as one of the more interesting value options on the slate, particularly if Rico Dowdle is unable to play. Warren has already shown a useful combination of rushing volume and receiving involvement, and a potential increase in workload would give him a much clearer path to 3x+ value at just $5,700. The matchup with Cincinnati isn't enough by itself to make Warren a priority, but the combination of price, projected workload and receiving upside makes him a serious consideration if Dowdle remains out. At this salary, Warren doesn't need a monster game to pay off — a workload in the neighborhood of 15-18 touches with a few targets could put him firmly into cash-game consideration while also opening up significant salary for upgrades elsewhere in the lineup. His own shoulder status is worth monitoring as well, but if he's active and Dowdle is ruled out, Warren becomes one of the first value backs I'll be looking toward.
Breece Hall - $6,400 Breece Hall is one of my favorite ways to save salary at running back this week. Through two games, Hall has already handled 38 carries and added seven receptions on seven targets, giving him 45 total opportunities. The rushing efficiency has been underwhelming at just 3.4 yards per carry, but the receiving role gives him a very important floor for DraftKings. Hall caught all five of his targets for 63 yards last week, and that receiving ability becomes especially intriguing against a Detroit defense that has been much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. The Jets-Lions game carries a 47.5-point total, and Hall should remain the focal point of the Jets backfield. I do understand the risk, as Allen has become more involved, but Hall is clearly the better back.
Bucky Irving - $6,300
Irving might be my favorite alternative to Hall if you're looking for a sub-$6,700 running back with legitimate three-down upside. Irving has 25 carries and 11 targets through two games, turning those opportunities into 134 rushing yards and 11 receptions. More importantly, he has established himself as Tampa Bay's primary workhorse, and his role has remained strong even with other backs available in the offense. Irving followed an eight-carry, 45-yard Week 1 performance with 17 carries for 89 yards in Week 2, showing that the rushing workload is trending in the right direction. He now gets Minnesota at home, and at $6,300, he's priced in an area where a 100-yard game or touchdown could push him toward a very strong tournament score. The combination of rushing efficiency, receiving involvement and workload makes Irving one of the more appealing mid-range RBs on the slate.
20+ Touch / Home Favorite Running Backs
RB | Salary | matchup | Spread | Avg. touches |
Jahmyr Gibbs | $8,800 | vs. NYJ | DET -6.5 | 28.0 |
Jonathan Taylor | $7,600 | vs. HOU | IND -2.5 | 25.0 |
Christian McCaffrey | $8,300 | vs. ARI | SF -8.5 | 21.5 |
James Cook | $6,900 | vs. LAC | BUF -7.0 | 20.5 |
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